Formulation of the regression problem



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Formulation of the regression problem

In the above equation (1) is the contingency independent term while the two other terms are in practice strongly contingency dependent, and it is clearly appropriate to build the regression models in a single-contingency approach so as to exploit the latter specificity.

Thus, for a given contingency we select its learning set () as the relevant operating states (denoted below) for this contingency among the first of the data base. Each state is characterized by : (i) candidate attributes describing its topology (e.g. in/out indicators) and electrical state (e.g. voltages, power flows, generation levels, reactive reserves ...) which are deemed to influence the severity of the contingency and in terms of which it is desired to express the regression models; (ii) its difference of its pre-computed values of and .

Then the learning objective is to build an approximate model,

where the function is determined so as to ``explain'' as much as possible the variance of observed in the learning set, e.g. such that the Mean Square Error (MSE)

 

is as small as possible. Notice that this calls for the identification among the candidate attributes of a subset of attributes which are actually relevant, i.e. which actually influence the severity of the particular contingency under consideration. We conjecture that for each contingency it is possible to identify a small number of attributes able to explain most of the variance of its severity. Obviously, these salient attributes are liable to change significantly from one contingency to another.




Wed Jan 18 20:00:51 MET 1995